The basics of climate change – Part 1: The Plimsoll line effect or why it is imperative to keep global warming below 1,5 – 2 C°?

(If you wish to read this article in its original, Hungarian version, click here)

Our Earth’s ecological and climatic systems are equilibrium systems. This means that if they are impacted by some external influence, they will usually attempt to reset their own balance. During human evolution we developed in this system, so it is our interest (as well as that of the climate system) to keep up the state of balance. Sadly, the signs of global climate change clearly show that we have artificially tipped the balance of our climate. The scale of it is so large that we have already doubled the maximal warming of the natural warming and cooling cycles of the past 400 thousand years. The warming generated by human impact is already much greater than what the Earth has experienced during its natural warm cycles in the past (or at least the period of the past that is evolutionary important to humans). This is nicely shown on the diagram below, where the blue “needlepoint” shows humanity’s impact.

Why is this state dangerous for humanity? Why did we step onto paper-thin ice with this action? To understand the answer to these questions, I’ll use an analogy.

The Plimsoll line on ships is the marking that indicates the maximum tilt the ship can take to return to its original (balanced) state. If the ship tilts above this line it will turn over and possibly even sink. The ship that tilts without reaching the Plimsoll line always finds and returns to its balance again. So, looking at it from a certain perspective, a ship in the sea is also an equilibrium system.

The Earth’s climate system can be well-represented by a ship. If the global climate system is tipped out of its balance it will try to reset it – until a certain limit. An excellent example of this is the natural warming and cooling cycles of the planet’s climate (these are shown by the blue lines on the diagram above). However, if the climate system overreaches its own Plimsoll line, the Earth’s climate will try to find a new state of balance (like a ship turning over).

One of the biggest problems is that in case we finally tip the system’s balance, we have no idea what the new balance (the one nature will find for itself) will be like. The chances however, of the new system being fit to support human life are extremely bleak. This means that humanity is speeding toward its own extinction, because we will overstep the limit in about 40-100 years if we do not change immediately.

Global climate change is a fact, as is that we humans are the cause of it. The 2015 Paris climate agreement was signed by the world’s nations with the purpose of keeping the global climate warming below 2 C°. This is because above this number the climate system will be tipped beyond resetting. Really, 1.5 C° would be considered safe but it is obvious that we will not be able to achieve that. The most optimistic climate modells predict 1.4 C° warming in the next 100 years, while the most pessimistic ones say 5.4 C°. The optimistic climate modells are based on all of humanity’s complete collaboration and cooperation. Sadly, we are far from that yet.

It is definite that we are in grave danger. We don’t have any more time to postpone action. It is the moral duty of every person on the planet to do all they can against climate change. No one is expecting any more than what we are actually capable of. To help you in this, I have started the subheading called „What can You do against climate change?”, where you can find out about the things you can do in your own life. You can find the introduction here.

I have been thinking about the solution of climate change for more than 25 years now. I have come up with a system that could guide us into a future where humanity lives in harmony with nature and where all of us are happier than we are now. I started the subheading called „6 programs of balance” to acquaint you with this system. If you read the articles there as they come out, you can get to know the solution which, in my opinion, works surely and effectively. I hope you’ll accompany me on this interesting journey of learning about the system. The reason I’m writing about it in 5 minute long articles is because, in my experience, most people don’t have a lot of time to read. This way you only have to give a few minutes of your time every once in a while and the picture will slowly formulate to show you what the right way is. If you do have time and feel like reading a book about this system, you have the chance to do that as well. I wrote the book out of complete selflessness and with the sole desire to help humanity navigate this crisis and shape its future. The more people read it, the higher society’s chances are of finding the right way…

DRDE

If you are interested in the previous part of this heading click here.

If you seek a better understanding of the blog’s structure, you can find a short guide here.

 

If you’d be interested in reading a book which talks even further about the topic above as well as many other life changing concepts click here. But don’t forget that the answers to Life’s great questions can only truly be found in yourself! This book as well as this blog can only help you find your own way there...

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